For 75 years, petroleum has been the dominant source of U.S. energy consumption. By the end of the decade, natural gas is expected to overtake oil for the first time, marking a major shift in the nation’s energy mix.
The transition would end an era that began in 1950, when petroleum displaced coal as America’s leading energy source.
“I say we probably cross that threshold within the next couple years, and by 2030, we will have a big lead on petroleum,” Toby Rice, chief executive of EQT Corp., said in an interview.
Natural gas accounted for 36% of U.S. energy consumption in 2025, just behind petroleum at 37%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The gap has steadily narrowed over the past decade as the shale revolution dramatically expanded domestic gas production while gasoline demand flattened.
The shift comes as electricity demand accelerates, fueled by artificial intelligence, data centers and broader electrification. Natural gas already supplies more than 40% of U.S. electricity generation, according to the EIA, while demand for gasoline has struggled to return to pre-pandemic levels despite Americans driving more miles each year.
“The facts don’t lie: The United States is in the midst of an energy transition, away from coal and oil, toward electricity produced by natural gas and renewables,” said Mark Brownstein, senior vice president of energy transition at the Environmental Defense Fund.
The EIA projects U.S. petroleum demand will increase just 0.6% between 2025 and 2027, while natural gas demand is expected to rise 3.4% over the same period.
Gas has steadily displaced coal in the U.S. power sector since advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling unlocked vast shale resources. Between 2011 and 2020, more than 100 coal-fired plants were replaced by or converted to natural gas generation, according to the EIA.
“Gas is dominant in power because it’s so inexpensive,” said Ira Joseph, senior research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “There’s just plentiful amounts of natural gas in this country.”
Natural gas has also complemented the growth of renewable power, with gas-fired plants able to ramp production quickly to balance intermittent wind and solar generation.
The trend extends beyond domestic electricity markets. The United States is already the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, with export capacity expected to roughly double by the end of the decade. Shell forecasts feedgas demand for LNG export facilities will account for 23% of total U.S. natural gas production by 2035.
Renewables continue to expand rapidly as well. From 2015 to 2025, U.S. wind and solar energy use more than tripled, while natural gas consumption increased 23%, according to EIA data.
“We’ve gone from the age of wood and horses to the age of coal to the age of petroleum, and now we are in the age of electrification,” Rice said. “And the age of electrification is going to be driven a lot by natural gas.”